SOFR prints above IORB. The Fed quietly increases the size of its standing facility. QT continues but slows.

Nope not happening, Fed will do whatever it takes to keep SOFR on its target.

If you’re long risk assets—stocks, crypto, whatever—don’t panic yet. The Fed just handed the system a fresh $13.5 billion IV bag. That’s bullish in the very short term.

It doesn't mean anything. It's an asset swap, they took bonds, gives reserves and the operation reverses the next day. Also, QE itself is super mid, and the only real effects that come from it is lower interest rates on long term assets, a shitty version of Yield Curve Control. The real mover is always Government spending and bank lending.

One camp—and honestly, the one that kept me up last night—believes bank reserves are finally getting scarce again.

There is nothing wrong with this, the banks just have to get money from Fed instead of IORB doing its thing. It doesn't change much about how much banks lend. That depends on real economic conditions, and Fed can't do much about that other than cutting rates itself.

Also the September 2019 event didn't result in Fed doing QE, that happened during COVID. There is a diff between QE and regular reserve management, QE pushes down yield on all Gov securities. And 2019 like yield spike is not going to happen due to the SRF.