I still think Mearsheimer is 50-50 at best. Some of his takes are ok, on other things he is super wrong and imperialist-brained.
This is one of those things that he is right about. At least the part about Europe's bleak future. His predictions about the outcome of the Ukraine conflict are dubious. To me it looks like the chances for a frozen conflict are quickly shrinking. Ukraine looks headed for total collapse.
2
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 2w
I agree, his takes on China are particularly cringe and he takes the idea that the US should be the global hegemon for granted. And I also expect Ukraine is headed for collapse, which explains the sudden political manoeuvring by the US. The elephant in the room is that Ukraine is running out of trained soldiers while the West is running out of weapons to send. At the same time, the economic situation in both Ukraine and the West is unravelling. A frozen conflict requires two sides of roughly equal power to maintain the balance, and that is clearly not the case.
I believe he is correct that Russia has an interest in keeping whatever is left of Ukraine destabilized after the war, making it a persistent economic burden for Europe. I have been saying this was a likely outcome since the war began, and it seems people like Mearsheimer and Beebe are starting to come around to this view. My impression is that they initially overestimated the West's parity with Russia and failed to consider the possibility that Russia could win outright.
3
TankieReplyBot - 2w
I found a YouTube link in your post. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
yogthos in europe
John Mearsheimer: Bleak Future of Europe - Defeated & Broken
https://youtu.be/e7hAS_8kThsI still think Mearsheimer is 50-50 at best. Some of his takes are ok, on other things he is super wrong and imperialist-brained.
This is one of those things that he is right about. At least the part about Europe's bleak future. His predictions about the outcome of the Ukraine conflict are dubious. To me it looks like the chances for a frozen conflict are quickly shrinking. Ukraine looks headed for total collapse.
I agree, his takes on China are particularly cringe and he takes the idea that the US should be the global hegemon for granted. And I also expect Ukraine is headed for collapse, which explains the sudden political manoeuvring by the US. The elephant in the room is that Ukraine is running out of trained soldiers while the West is running out of weapons to send. At the same time, the economic situation in both Ukraine and the West is unravelling. A frozen conflict requires two sides of roughly equal power to maintain the balance, and that is clearly not the case.
I believe he is correct that Russia has an interest in keeping whatever is left of Ukraine destabilized after the war, making it a persistent economic burden for Europe. I have been saying this was a likely outcome since the war began, and it seems people like Mearsheimer and Beebe are starting to come around to this view. My impression is that they initially overestimated the West's parity with Russia and failed to consider the possibility that Russia could win outright.
I found a YouTube link in your post. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: