The year was 1995, and the euro was on the horizon as the currency that would unite all Europeans even further. Two countries more than met the criteria to join the single currency club, given their exceptionally high levels of development. Belgium and the Netherlands were two of the most advanced economies in Europe, with nearly identical GDP per capita . The Belgians' GDP per capita was approaching $28,600, while the Dutch had reached $29,000. Both economies were among the wealthiest in Europe and presented a promising future. Thirty years later, the Netherlands is a financially sound country, with the second-highest GDP per capita in the Eurozone (only behind Ireland) and a respected state. Belgium, according to a leading prosecutor, is on the verge of becoming a narco-state, plagued by an unmanageable deficit, public debt exceeding that of many peripheral countries (already reaching 107% of GDP), and internal instability virtually unparalleled in Europe . This, though exaggerated, more or less summarizes what has been happening in this country over the last few decades.

Despite Belgium's high per capita income levels ($60,000, exceeding the eurozone average of €50,000), the gap with its Dutch neighbors has steadily widened. Today, the Netherlands' per capita income is $13,000 higher. But beyond this anecdotal comparison (it must be admitted that the Netherlands has done very well, especially since the introduction of the euro), Belgium seems to have become a somewhat chaotic state , particularly considering its location in one of the wealthiest corners of Europe, surrounded by stable and prosperous countries.

Their neighbors, including the French (who also have little to boast about), often joke about their neighbor's problems, claiming they are a bit of a "disaster" in political, organizational, and economic matters, or when it comes to maintaining their infrastructure. These problems are perhaps somewhat reminiscent of those suffered by Southern Europe : deficits, debt, instability, decaying and frustratingly dysfunctional infrastructure , bureaucracy… and now an additional problem that continues to grow: the rise of organized crime, which is nothing more than a consequence of all the above. If internal organization (including policing), communication between regions, the rule of law, and a well-functioning economy cannot be guaranteed, crime can find the perfect breeding ground for criminal gangs . Illegal activities, the underground economy, and inequality are key factors in the rise of these gangs.

Belgium risks becoming a 'narco-state' as organized crime has infiltrated its ports, police, and even the judiciary, according to a judge who spent several months in a safe house. "What is happening today in our jurisdiction and beyond is no longer a problem of common crime. We are facing an organized threat that is undermining our institutions ," the investigating judge of an Antwerp court asserted in an open letter published Monday on the court's website and reported by the Financial Times .

Debt... and more debt

A major report by Politico, published a few months ago, perfectly summed it up in a single headline: ' Shootings, debt, and political paralysis show Brussels is crumbling .' Belgium is facing a very serious public debt crisis, but within Belgium, Brussels is in a particularly dire situation.

This report revealed many of the problems plaguing the Belgian economy and society: "Belgium's intricate political structure houses a multi-tiered system of government , each level with its own powers and often plagued by infighting… Not only has the coordination of the fight against crime in Brussels been compromised by political chaos. The construction of social housing and major infrastructure projects is also at risk of being delayed. Subsidies—such as those for charities, NGOs, and cultural projects—are frozen. Funding for social welfare centers, the police, and local administrations is shrouded in uncertainty. Public debt is piling up almost as fast as garbage bags on the dirty streets."

Belgium is a relatively small country, but it has multiple levels of government, police forces, and education systems—all of which are not only inefficient but also expensive and do little to reduce the country's significant financial imbalances. A report by the investment firm Natixis, accessed by elEconomista.es, explains that the Belgian political landscape remains fragile and fragmented. The De Wever government, formed in February 2025 after 236 days of negotiations, is composed of an eclectic coalition (the "Arizona" coalition) and continues to be unstable. The absence of a budget presented to Parliament before October 23 increases the risk of a return to the provisional twelfths regime at the beginning of 2026 , pending a comprehensive budget. A government collapse during budget negotiations is also a possibility.

Belgium is a divided, completely polarized country, with a thriving, much wealthier north (more similar to the Netherlands) where Dutch is the official language, and a smaller, French-speaking south with a much lower per capita income. This inequality also hinders the country's ability to adopt consensus-based policies that could foster potential growth and achieve public debt sustainability.

"The state of public finances is worrying. The public deficit is expected to deteriorate in 2025, exceeding 5%. Without timely corrective measures, it is projected to remain around that level and could even surpass 6% by 2029, based on the long-term trajectory. Our simulations indicate an increase in public debt by 2030, given that the deficit required to stabilize it is around 3.3%, placing Belgium in a very similar situation to France, with high deficits and a high level of public debt," the report states. All of this is happening amidst police chaos and violence that is pushing this wealthy society to the brink.

"Extensive mafia structures have become entrenched, transforming into a parallel force that challenges not only the police but also the judiciary," the judge stated, choosing to remain anonymous due to death threats. Antwerp is a major drug trafficking hub for Belgium and the rest of Europe, as its port is the second largest on the continent and a key entry point for cocaine. An investigation based on decrypted messages between drug traffickers and other criminals revealed a shadow economy operating in the port of Antwerp, as well as large-scale money laundering operations, authorities indicated.

Elements of a narco-state

"The consequences are serious: are we evolving into a narco-state?... According to our anti-drug commissioner, this evolution has already begun. My colleagues and I share this concern," the judge noted. "A narco-state is characterized by an illegal economy, corruption, and violence ," three elements that were already present in Belgium, according to these sources.

The judge, one of Antwerp's 17 investigating judges with the power to authorize wiretaps and other methods of obtaining evidence for the prosecution, stated that "bribery is permeating our institutions from their very foundations ," and that the investigations have led to the arrests of port employees, customs officials, police officers, and members of the judiciary.

Rating drops on the horizon

However, Belgium's future is somewhat precarious. Although violence and bribery may decrease now that everything is coming to light, fiscal problems appear to be here to stay. Natixis believes Belgium should prepare for credit rating downgrades in the coming months or years . These moves will only generate more distrust and a flight from its assets.

Furthermore, Belgium, being a much smaller economy than France, might not generate the same level of interest in prompting the European Central Bank to intervene in some way or with some kind of financial safety net, as it has done in the past for other countries. Belgium needs a change of course to turn the situation around, but political fragility and high levels of public debt are tying the hands of a government unable to reach major agreements.