8
2mon
1

Nelson Wong: Trade War & Chinese Economic Statecraft

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqubw-zgLeQ

The lowdown on Nelson Wong’s interview is basically that the US-China trade war is a symptom of a deep-seated clash of worldviews. The US is freaking out because it’s scared China will replace it as the global hegemon, but Wong calls this fear a mental illness rooted in Western thinking that if I rise, you must fall. Meanwhile, China keeps saying, we just want to live our lives, we don't seek hegemony, and we don't need your drama. The problem is that the US is fixated on relative gains being stuck in a zero-sum game mindset instead seeking mutual benefits from trade, so it’s been all threats and bullying instead of sitting down at the table.

China has been been preparing for this fight for over a decade now. They’ve been quietly building up their economic resilience and insulating themselves from the US. Exports to the US used to be 15% of China’s total, now it’s down to 8%. So even if the US tries to yank the plug, it’s not going to break China. And then there’s the rare earth thing where China controls 80-90% of the processed stuff that goes into everything from chips to weapons. The US would need at least a decade to catch up in the most optimistic scenario. China’s been perfecting the processing tech since the 1950s, you can't replicate that overnight. So while the US is trying to rescue”its economy by dragging manufacturing home and basically trying to reverse globalization, China’s using its massive market and rare earth leverage to negotiate from strength.

Europe is in a tight spot here, though. Wong’s advice is not to become a pawn in America's trade war. Europe and China don’t have major geopolitical beefs, so why burn a good trade relationship for the US’s midlife crisis? Plus, if you hitch your wagon to the US, you’re just going to get stuck in their economic drama.

But the big takeaway is that China isn’t trying to be the next US. Wong argues it’s a fundamentally different civilization with its own culture, history, and philosophy that are built on harmony through coexistence rather than domination. As he puts it, Confucian principles mean gentleman seeks to get along, even if they don’t agree, and China’s got zero interest in forcing others to be like them. The whole universalism line of thinking of forcing everyone to be like you is just a misguided delusion.

Looking ahead, the world’s shifting. BRICS and other Global South alliances are rising because the unipolar US-dominated order is crumbling. China’s not just about being just the world’s factory anymore. It’s pivoting to science and tech leadership while pursuing knowledge-based growth. And because it’s been on the receiving end of hegemony itself, it doesn’t want to be the boss. That’s why its neighbors and partners like Russia are more comfortable with its rise. The future is a multipolar world where coexistence beats domination. Eventually, both sides will have to realize this fight’s a lose-lose and circle back to talks. Because neither the US nor China can afford to burn it all down.