Four years of war have given it more confidence and confirmed its identity, giving rise to the idea of Ukraine as a new middle power—Westward-leaning but non-aligned.
From the time when Mr Putin first struck Ukraine in 2014
What is this referring to? That is the year of the Maiden coup is it not? Are they authors just projecting?
10
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 1mon
I'm guessing they're referring to Crimea joining Russia after fascists took power.
9
TankieTanuki [he/him] - 1mon
Putin made the authoritarian move of *checks notes* accepting the votes of a referendum
8
P1d40n3 [he/him] - 1mon
What does happen to Ukraine when the war is successful? Has there been any thoughts from Russia on this? Say Russia takes the oblasts it has claimed. What then? More war? I guess it comes down to how much longer can the two sides kill each other?
3
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 1mon
My prediction is that the AFU is going to collapse sometime next year and then Russia will dictate terms.
7
P1d40n3 [he/him] - 1mon
My concern is that The West won't negotiate in good faith, and then we're at Minsk all over again. What concrete promises can Ukraine deliver that won't be undone under NATO first chance westerners get?
3
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 1mon
I really can't see Russia falling for Minsk 3 at this point.
4
vanDerVaartBlackenedRanch [none/use name] - 1mon
Nevertheless, she persisted
6
P1d40n3 [he/him] - 1mon
And there lies my concern. What guarantees can the west offer? There is no diplomatic trust on either side. Once the AFU collapses, does Russia just take what they've claimed? Without some serious diplomacy, i fear this conflict simply 'goes cold' like the Korean war.
4
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 1mon
The west can't offer any guarantees, and that's why this war is going to have a military solution. I expect Russia will absorb most of Ukraine aside from western parts of it that are genuinely anti Russian. What's left is going to be demilitarized. NATO is very clearly not going to directly fight Russia, if they were going to do it that would've happened by now. So, Russia is in a position to dictate their terms.
4
huf [he/him] - 1mon
yeah, but what can they do if the west presents a minsk 3? say no and keep a frozen war with a fully militarized border?
1
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 1mon
They won the war and there's nothing the west can do about it, so Russia doesn't need to agree to any compromise. It's not going to be a frozen war, the AFU is going to collapse, and once that happens Russia will likely hold referendums to have whatever oblasts want to join Russia do so. Then they're going to leave a demilitarized rump western Ukraine as Europe's problem. It's going to need billions in funding just to keep it functioning, and if Europeans fail to deliver then they're going to have a huge immigration crisis on their hands.
3
huf [he/him] - 1mon
yeah, but 3 days after the western ukrainian rump state is demilitarized, the EU/US will restart the smuggling of weapons into ukraine and will aid ukronazis in doing terrorism in eastern ukraine, and then what? how does russia plan to stop the constant, unending gladio shit that's coming, without the whole thing devolving back to where this started, but with the borders shifted.
4
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ - 1mon
I don't think it's going to be that easy for EU/US to do in practice. You gotta keep in mind that there is a betrayal narrative already taking hold in Ukraine. A lot of these fascists also died fighting over the past three years. The remaining ones are going to hold as much a grudge against the west. Then there's the fact that they've been funnelling weapons to cells in Europe this whole time. The way things are going in Europe, they might decide they have a better chance there. Russia also has a lot of experience dealing with this sort of stuff as can be seen recently in Chechnya. Majority of the population in Ukraine is tired of the war now, and even Ukrainian polls show they want the war to be over. There's going to be very little appetite to be a NATO proxy going forward.
yogthos in europe
Four years of war have given it more confidence and confirmed its identity, giving rise to the idea of Ukraine as a new middle power—Westward-leaning but non-aligned.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/09/24/what-happens-when-ukraine-stops-fightinghttps://archive.ph/HHDGW
What is this referring to? That is the year of the Maiden coup is it not? Are they authors just projecting?
I'm guessing they're referring to Crimea joining Russia after fascists took power.
Putin made the authoritarian move of *checks notes* accepting the votes of a referendum
What does happen to Ukraine when the war is successful? Has there been any thoughts from Russia on this? Say Russia takes the oblasts it has claimed. What then? More war? I guess it comes down to how much longer can the two sides kill each other?
My prediction is that the AFU is going to collapse sometime next year and then Russia will dictate terms.
My concern is that The West won't negotiate in good faith, and then we're at Minsk all over again. What concrete promises can Ukraine deliver that won't be undone under NATO first chance westerners get?
I really can't see Russia falling for Minsk 3 at this point.
Nevertheless, she persisted
And there lies my concern. What guarantees can the west offer? There is no diplomatic trust on either side. Once the AFU collapses, does Russia just take what they've claimed? Without some serious diplomacy, i fear this conflict simply 'goes cold' like the Korean war.
The west can't offer any guarantees, and that's why this war is going to have a military solution. I expect Russia will absorb most of Ukraine aside from western parts of it that are genuinely anti Russian. What's left is going to be demilitarized. NATO is very clearly not going to directly fight Russia, if they were going to do it that would've happened by now. So, Russia is in a position to dictate their terms.
yeah, but what can they do if the west presents a minsk 3? say no and keep a frozen war with a fully militarized border?
They won the war and there's nothing the west can do about it, so Russia doesn't need to agree to any compromise. It's not going to be a frozen war, the AFU is going to collapse, and once that happens Russia will likely hold referendums to have whatever oblasts want to join Russia do so. Then they're going to leave a demilitarized rump western Ukraine as Europe's problem. It's going to need billions in funding just to keep it functioning, and if Europeans fail to deliver then they're going to have a huge immigration crisis on their hands.
yeah, but 3 days after the western ukrainian rump state is demilitarized, the EU/US will restart the smuggling of weapons into ukraine and will aid ukronazis in doing terrorism in eastern ukraine, and then what? how does russia plan to stop the constant, unending gladio shit that's coming, without the whole thing devolving back to where this started, but with the borders shifted.
I don't think it's going to be that easy for EU/US to do in practice. You gotta keep in mind that there is a betrayal narrative already taking hold in Ukraine. A lot of these fascists also died fighting over the past three years. The remaining ones are going to hold as much a grudge against the west. Then there's the fact that they've been funnelling weapons to cells in Europe this whole time. The way things are going in Europe, they might decide they have a better chance there. Russia also has a lot of experience dealing with this sort of stuff as can be seen recently in Chechnya. Majority of the population in Ukraine is tired of the war now, and even Ukrainian polls show they want the war to be over. There's going to be very little appetite to be a NATO proxy going forward.