cross-posted from: https://news.abolish.capital/post/3871

Labour has won every general election in Wales for a century – the longest winning streak for any party in any country in the western world. This didn’t just have important implications for Wales and for Labour – it was a vital part of the glue holding the union together.

This relationship between Labourism and unionism isn’t just incidental – it’s part of their mutual fabric. Modern Britain – the idea of the country as a single nation on this archipelago in the north Atlantic, rather than a multinational empire – was created as much by Clement Attlee’s 1945 Labour government as it was by Churchill’s wartime speeches. The affection for it felt particularly among baby boomers is a memory both of its past imperial dominance, but also of its once generous welfare state.

Wales has always had an important role in this: Welsh Labour politicians – most notably Nye Bevan – were involved in this foundation, ensuring it wasn’t just an English project. As Scotland has swung to the Scottish National Party (SNP) over the last generation (with the exception of the 2024 election), Wales’s continued habit of voting Labour has become even more vital for defending and projecting a certain idea of unionism.

And so, when Labour lost Caerphilly last night – a seat it had held in every election since 1918, coming a poor third to Plaid Cymru (who won) and Reform (who came second) in a Senedd by-election for the constituency in which it got just 11% – it wasn’t just a significant bump in the normal rollercoaster of electoral politics.

It was a step into a flume taking Wales – and the UK – in a whole new direction.

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