Before Paris, the world was on track for a catastrophic outcome: 4°C degrees of warming this century. The first wave of global emissions targets brought this closer to 3°C. In 2021, upgraded targets brought projections down to 2.1–2.8°C. Tallying up the new round of national targets suggests it may be possible to limit warming to 1.9°C. That assumes, of course, all targets are met in full. The new United Nations emissions gap report suggests 2.3–2.5°C is more likely.

The bad news is the Paris Agreement is not working fast enough. The longer we take to bring global emissions to net zero, the more heating we bake in. Every fraction of a degree intensifies damage to ecosystems and human communities. We are seeing these worsening impacts now at 1.2°C of warming. Almost every corner of the world is already reeling from intensifying heat, storms, floods, droughts and fires.